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August 3, 2011 / Dave Gorham

Quiet in the Tropics? Bite Your Tongue!

Does it already seem like Tropical Storm Don was years ago? Last week’s storm sure generated lots of excitement for coastal (and even inland) residents of Texas as the prospect of drought relief seemed so close. The storm also generated excitement — and not the good kind — for its evaporation at landfall — it almost disappeared as it reached the coast. So close, yet so far.

And now Tropical Storm Emily has been dismissed out to sea, staying just far enough east of Florida. Probably a good thing, that. Most of the Florida peninsula is caught up in the drought plaguing the southern U.S., but their drought is practically a pool party compared to other areas. Unlike Texas, I don’t think peninsula residents are begging for a soaking at the hands of a tropical storm or hurricane.

Is it any wonder Texas residents are begging for a tropical storm? All images are clickable for a larger size. Image: U.S. Drought Monitor/NOAA

What’s next? Already Disturbance 24 has been identified and though its chances for development over the next couple of days are slim, we don’t expect it to fade away into nothing — at least, not yet. We’re also keeping an eye on the western coast of Africa. At the moment, a swirl of clouds can be spotted and this area is infamous for hatching disturbances into the warm tropical waters of the Atlantic.

This sky-eye view of the entire Atlantic Basin reveals things aren't quite as quiet as you may think. Image: ImpactWeather

And let’s not forget the eastern Pacific. Two storms there, Hurricane Eugene and Disturbance 18E, are not expected to strike any land areas but it certainly goes to show an active eastern Pacific. In fact, we may find 18E upgraded to depression status later today as further strengthening is likely.

Neither Eugene or 18E are expected to impact any land areas. Image: ImpactWeather

Though it seems quiet, the ImpactWeather TropicsWatch team is keeping a watchful eye on four active disturbances and one suspect area on Africa’s West Coast. Additionally, areas like the eastern Caribbean, the western Tropical Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico are climatological hot spots for development, while the peak of hurricane season draws closer every day — still more than a month away.

Historical storm formation points for the first ten days of August. Image: NHC/NOAA

Check out this video from ImpactWeather’s Chris Hebert talking about how the perceived lack of hurricane activity is actually right inline with our active season forecast.












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