Late-Week Snow Storm? No April Foolin’…
Severe weather season is here and there’s a slight threat for severe storms across the southern U.S. this week. Today, a low pressure system and its associated upper level disturbance will develop across the Southern Plains and Mississippi River Valley before moving eastward across the Deep South tomorrow and pushing off the Carolina coast on Thursday.
With plenty of moisture and instability in place, this system will bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the ArkLaTex region, central and east Texas and eastward into the Lower Mississippi River Valley later today into early Wednesday. Showers and storms will then spread eastward across the Southeast on Wednesday before lingering over the Florida peninsula on Thursday. The potential exists for a few storms to become strong to locally severe. Primary threats from any severe storms that develop will be gusty winds, occasional lightning, moderate to large hail, and possibly an isolated tornado or two. Currently, the most elevated risk of strong to severe storms is forecast to occur across southeast Texas, Louisiana, central/southern Mississippi and into western Alabama from late Tuesday afternoon overnight into early Wednesday morning.
Models are indicating that later this week a stronger low pressure system will develop and track northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts Friday into early Saturday. Should this occur, we would expect an increased chance of gusty winds, coastal rain, and potentially heavy inland snow across these regions. Please note that the impacts from this potential storm system are highly dependent on whether the low pressure forms, how strong the low pressure becomes, where the low pressure tracks, and the amount of cold air available at the surface. Therefore, confidence in this forecast is below average.
We’ll continue to monitor the pattern closely throughout the week, as this system has the potential to cause disruptions to business and travel by the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend for much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
I was just thinking about this but Friday is April Fools’ Day and I’m sure a lot of folks across the Northeast will feel like the weather is playing a trick on them. They’ll be wondering if it’s really spring or not. Even though it certainly is, it still doesn’t feel like it across parts of the U.S. (mainly the northern Rockies right now and later this week the Ohio Valley into the Northeast).