No Break As This Harsh Winter Yields To Severe Weather Season
It sure doesn’t feel like spring today across the northern U.S. from the Northern Plains into the Northeast as a fast moving low pressure system brings a good chance of locally heavy snow through Thursday morning. Snow will increase in coverage and intensity across Minnesota, northern Wisconsin and Michigan this afternoon and evening. Then it will spread eastward across southern Ontario, New York state, northern and eastern Pennsylvania, and northern New Jersey late tonight into Wednesday morning and finally into New England tomorrow afternoon.
Snowfall amounts are forecast to average from 6-12 inches with isolated higher amounts from North Dakota to northern Michigan. Farther east, snow amounts are forecast to average from 3-6 inches with isolated higher amounts up to 8 inches or more over much of New York state and New England. Farther south, a brief period of wet snow is expected Wednesday morning over northeast Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey where 1-3 inches may briefly accumulate.
The snow will decrease and end from west to east from North Dakota to northern Michigan Wednesday evening and across most of the Northeast on Thursday morning and afternoon as drier air moves into the region.
South of the winter storm, unstable Gulf air will collide with a low pressure system and its associated cold front bringing an elevated risk of strong to severe thunderstorms over the next 24-48 hours from the Central Plains to the Mid Atlantic Coast. Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage and intensity across eastern Kansas and Nebraska, northern Missouri, Iowa, and northern Illinois this afternoon and evening, shifting quickly east across the Ohio Valley tomorrow morning. Thunderstorms will then move southeastward across the Tennessee Valley and Mid Atlantic Coast tomorrow afternoon and evening.
Isolated severe storms will be possible with large hail up to 2.00 inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph, intense lightning and isolated tornados. The best chance of severe weather will extend from eastern Nebraska and Iowa, southeastward across the Ohio Valley to eastern Tennessee, western North Carolina and southwest Virginia.
This strong low pressure system is expected to move off the East Coast by Thursday morning with improving conditions across the eastern half of the country. However, looks like the next low pressure system will be approaching the High Plains from the west Thursday afternoon/evening with showers and thunderstorms developing in advance of it. Isolated severe storms will be possible. On Friday, with building instability over the Southern Plains, there will be a slight risk of strong to severe storms during the afternoon/evening hours as the next storm system develops over the Plains.
The next few days look to be rather active, not only across the northern U.S. but also across the Plains later in the week. But that’s to be expected, especially since we’re just getting into the severe weather season.