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September 1, 2010 / Dave Gorham

Analog Power

From wearing his geologist’s hat this morning, to now wearing his tropical meteorologist’s hat this afternoon, YourWeatherBlog once again taps the mind of Fred Schmude:

I have had a little time to look at some past data and compare ImpactWeather’s prime analog data with the current season…the trends are quite remarkable so far…take a look:

The Analogs compared to 2010.

The Analogs: 1998

1998 had three storms develop in the western and northern Gulf during the first three weeks of September…also a major hurricane struck during the last week of the month.

This September, based on the analog data alone from 1998, I would be a little more concerned as we move into September over the Gulf of Mexico.  Here is what some of the models are showing…

Current CHI rapidly falling (upper level divergence) over the Eastern Pac and spreading eastward.

Hurricane east of the Caribbean and deeping pressure over the western Gulf near Tampico

Strong ensemble trends indicate high pressure at the surface and aloft will be building over the Southeast U.S. during the second week of September. This system has trouble written all over it! Considering the timing, model trends and ensemble trends incorporating detailed PNA and NAO data, this will have to be one to watch closely.

GFS...12z Wed, Sept 8th.

The new ECMWF turns it out to sea before reaching the Bahamas…it’s possible, but the EURO is not having a good season this year and I am currently favoring a more westerly solution.

Mr. Schmude has posted to YourWeatherBlog before as well as provided content. You can read some of his prior entries here, here and here.


One Comment

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  1. Fred Rogers / Sep 2 2010 2:15 PM

    That year really stands out. All Atlantic . . . and then all Gulf.

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