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July 15, 2010 / Dave Gorham

Tropical Activity On The Other Side of the Marble

[I’m posting this for Fred Rogers. Seems his computer is enjoying a siesta.]

Many of ImpactWeather’s clients are in the western hemisphere so much our attention is on the Atlantic Basin, the Carib and the Gulf of Mexico during Atlantic Tropical Storm Season.  But we also keep an eye on the western and eastern Pacific for our clients who may be affected by weather in those regions.  ImpactWeather StormWatch manager Fred Schmude tells us what’s going on today in the South China Sea: “Conson [pron. kahn-SON]remains a tropical storm and it looks like it will move inland well to the south of Hong Kong toward the Vietnamese-Chinese Border late Friday.  The main threat for the Hong Kong area will be locally heavy rainfall on the northern flank of the storm over the next few days.”  The system is expected to remain a tropical storm through final landfall.

ImpactWeather Gmaps 2.0 Interactive Mapping System

The storm’s more specific forecast:

Tropical Storm Conson is currently located over the South China Sea near 16.7N/114.1E, or about 380 miles south of Hong Kong, China. Maximum sustained winds are estimated near 60 mph with gusts to 75 mph. The storm is expected to move to the west-northwest at about 10 mph across the South China Sea while maintaining its strength as a tropical storm. Conson is then expected to make landfall over Hainan Island, China. The current forecast indicates Conson weakening slightly before making landfall as a tropical storm about 300 miles west of Hong Kong sometime early Friday afternoon (all times local). The storm is then expected to emerge over the Gulf of Tonkin, and then move inland near the border of Vietnam and China.


Unless the forecast for Conson changes and the storm is redirected towards Hong Kong, direct effects from Tropical Storm Conson are not likely for Hong Kong. However, squalls associated with some of the outer bands may move inland as early as Friday morning bringing the possibility of heavy rain and gusty winds to the area. In addition, the storm may usher in a moist tropical airmass over southern China. Heavy rain may be possible into next week as a result. We will continue to monitor Tropical Storm Conson today and may eventually issue a flooding alert if heavy rain will impact [various client areas]. The threat for heavy rain in some of the outer bands may begin within 48 hours.

Philippines enhanced satellite, ImpactWeather, Inc.

On our side of the globe, any approaching storm means you better have plenty of spare batteries, lots of potable water and enough nonperishable food to last at least five days.  Unless of course you’re on the immediate coast and evacuation is called for.  We also typically board our windows, stow anything from the lawn and make sure our vehicles are all gassed up.

But how do residents of Hai Phong or Qinzhou prepare for a landfalling cyclone?  I’ll do some research on that and post my findings next week.



One Comment

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  1. Ron Haar / Sep 2 2010 3:26 PM

    Over here in Puerto Rico, specially the Metropolitan area it has been raining and strong winds since early morning. I hope this goes by already. Too much wind, too much rain and the on and off thunderstorms are driving me crazy. Don’t mind the nice cold air though

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