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December 1, 2009 / Dave Gorham

Snow Threat This Friday Over Southeast Texas

 

·         Computer Model Guidance

 

Here is the latest computer model data depicting the disturbance responsible for the snow threat this Friday.   Note that the speed of this disturbance will be critical in determining snowfall totals.  

 

 

What type of affects will a faster moving disturbance have on any potential precipitation?   Since a fast moving system means there is less time for Gulf moisture to get entrained within the disturbance you would expect there to be considerable less precipitation.  Let’s take a look…

 

 

 

Now with the faster moving disturbance…

 

 

Interesting, but the new 18z GFS now has a slight slower solution once again…let’s see if those precipitation numbers also increase…

 

 

The question now is will atmospheric data support the formation of snow, sleet or rain while precipitation is falling during the day on Friday.  Chris Hebert composed a model soundings displaying temperatures across the lower part of the atmosphere at 3pm on Friday.  Let’s take a look…

 

 

Note at 3pm the atmosphere is below freezing just above the surface meaning anything that does fall will likely be in the form of snow.   At 9pm the sounding is just as cold meaning all snow would occur at that time as well if precipitation was still falling. 

 

What is our forecast?

 

Here is the latest GFS model forecast depicting a wide swath of snow across all of Southeast Texas this Friday with amounts averaging from a trace to 1 inch across most of the area.  Note the small area of 2-3 inches near and just to the north of Houston.   For now we see no reason to disagree with this forecast.  Please note with the slightly slower movement of the disturbance depicted by the latest computer models we now think snowfall amounts may have to be adjusted slightly higher.  

 

 

Meteorologist:  Fred Schmude

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